This Thursday is Groundhog Day, the annual day celebrated in the US and Canada when a large rodent called Punxsutawney Phil appears from a hole to 'predict' when winter will end.
This traditional, if low-key event, was given worldwide prominence in 1993 when Bill Murray starred in a film of the same name - only with the twist that he repeated every day until he found 'redemption' (and got the girl) by changing his self-centred habits.
This week feels like our own repetitive Groundhog Day with the news echoing almost exactly what was happening in the financial world a year ago.
Then, the papers were full of outrage at Royal Bank of Scotland CEO Stephen Hester's bonus, the economy looked set for a double-dip recession after it contracted in the final quarter of the previous year, and the eurozone crisis was already boring rigid everybody who was not an economist by profession.
And, of course, the elite of the business world were enjoying their A-list status at the World Economic Summit in Davos.
But maybe there is a difference this year, and it may not be a positive one. This time 12 months ago there was an undeniable belief that the worst was over and however bad it looked, the traditional post-recession world we were used to would inevitably reassert itself. Now, we're not so sure.
The result is a loss of confidence at all levels - from banks refusing to lend to each other to consumers unwilling to spend in the shops - which is not only prolonging the agony but also creating a vicious spiral of uncertainty. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. - David Churchill
Germany reportedly wants Greece to accept a eurozone 'budget commissioner' to oversee tax and spending in return for securing a second Eu130bn bailout. The commissioner, appointed by other eurozone finance ministers, would have the power to veto budget decisions taken by the Greek government. Meanwhile, Germany appears increasingly isolated within the eurozone by its hard-line stance against putting more resources behind the proposed European Stability Mechanism.
[ pp.1, 6 ]Influential institutional investors in Barclays Bank have told the bank they will not accept higher bonus payouts to CEO Bob Diamond and other senior executives, telling the board to end the 'lavish' bonus culture. The Barclays investors believe the row over the £1m bonus for Royal Bank of Scotland CEO Stephen Hester will fade into insignificance once the extent of the awards to Diamond and his colleagues are revealed. In its lead editorial, the FT says the government has shown 'muddled thinking' in its approach to bankers' bonuses.
[ pp.1, 3, 10 ]...thinks investors should be sceptical of the 'blame game' now on the increase as more companies take advantage of the eurozone crisis to pass the buck for poor performance.
...While there was a good reason (surging car sales) for Kia Motors to have outperformed Korea's Kospi index by a fifth last year, there is less cause to think it can happen again this year.
...Starbucks is turning to alcohol to drive sales in the US where the coffee shop market is becoming saturated.
...Illumina looks to have panicked with activating a 'poison pill' defence against Roche's bid, although this should not prevent the Swiss drugmaker's eventual success.
[ p.24 ]...John Authers believes there are too many hedge funds which have grown big simply by copying each other and tracking the market, although they still charge hefty fees for doing it.
[ p.24 ]...David Wighton thinks that the Royal Bank of Scotland board should not cave in to pressure over CEO Stephen Hester's bonus. If the government wants to treat the bank as an arm of the State, it should go ahead and nationalise it.
...New Lloyd's of London chairman John Nelson is right to focus his strategy on attracting emerging market business to London rather than set up separate hubs in those markets.
...The prospect of cheap shale gas in the US will prove a huge benefit to industry, giving manufacturing companies the competitive advantage to bring jobs 'back home'.
[ p.45 ]...Damian Reece defends Royal Bank of Scotland CEO Stephen Hester over his bonus, arguing that he deserves his reward for his work since the financial crisis - unlike the politicians, central bankers and regulators who are still on the public payroll. It is also time to stop denigrating British banking and start promoting it to the world as 'best in class'.
[ p.33 ]...Stephen Foley believes Roche should be prepared to pay more to secure US gene sequencing company Illumina as the two companies are ideal partners for the long run.
...The Federal Reserve's refusal to set a target for 'maximum employment' has foreclosed the possibility of innovative research to tackle the 'economic issue of the decade'.
...Google deserves a break as it will not be making use of data collected without permission, although this is not the case for others when web browsing information is tracked.
[ p.54 ]...suggests that the World Economic Summit in Davos is now too 'organised and structured' to be worth attending.
[ p.49 ]...Alex Brummer says Royal Bank of Scotland CEO Stephen Hester must 'stop being so self-regarding' and understand why the public and politicians believe his bonus is wrong in the current circumstances.
...It is no surprise that James Murdoch has resigned as a non-executive director of GlaxoSmithKline, but this adds to the pressure on him to quit BSkyB as well.
...The Financial Services Authority was right to get tough with JP Morgan Cazenove over the suspicious trades in Punch Tavern shares, but the fine lacks 'real bite' in the context of the 'hundreds of millions' which flow across trading desks.
[ p.95 ]...Ruth Sunderland is critical of the fees and value delivered by investment bankers, arguing that 'their biggest talent has been for getting away with it'.
[ p.94 ]...Peter Cunliffe thinks that while Royal Bank of Scotland CEO Stephen Hester deserves his bonus, he could defuse the situation by offering to give some or all of it to charity.
...Good news for the music industry has come from Parliamentary approval of the Live Music Bill, which removes some of the bureaucracy and expense that threatened to prevent small venues putting on live acts.
[ p.78 ]Royal Bank of Scotland CEO Stephen Hester is poised to receive £8m from new share awards under a long-term incentive scheme. Disclosure of the new bonus in addition to Hester's controversial £1m award for last year will put further pressure on the government to act at RBS. But other bank chiefs are also enjoying bumper bonuses in spite of a difficult year with Michael Sherwood, head of Goldman Sachs in London, receiving £1.6m.
[ pp.1.1, 3.1 ]US investment bank Jefferies is expected to clinch a deal this week to acquire Hoare Govett from Royal Bank of Scotland. Jefferies is believed to be only offering a nominal sum for Hoare, with RBS likely to pay for current salaries and redundancies.
[ p.3.1 ]George Osborne has made it clear to France and Germany that the UK will not commit extra funds to bail out the eurozone unless they are also prepared to inject new funds. Osborne's comments, at the World Economic Summit in Davos, were made ahead of a eurozone finance ministers meeting on Monday to discuss a 'firewall' to isolate Greece and other at-risk countries.
[ p.3.1, 3.5 ]AstraZeneca may announce further job losses of up to 3,000 along with its annual results on Thursday. CEO David Brennan is expected to extend the cost-cutting programme started in 2010 which has already promised 10,000 job losses by 2014.
[ p.3.1 ]Rank is in talks to acquire the casino division of Gala Coral for about £250m, with a deal possibly announced along with Rank's interim results on 9 February. Rank plans to merge its 35-strong Grosvenor Casinos chain with Gala's 24 casinos to make it the UK's biggest operator.
[ p.3.3 ]...Dominic O'Connell in Davos found the world's business leaders unconcerned about the euro's problems as all eyes continue to turn eastwards, away from the 'slow-moving West'.
...If George Osborne really believes that Stephen Hester is doing a good job, he should say so publicly.
...Boris Johnson continues to be something of a 'Davos darling', although David Cameron also had a good visit.
...Apart from all the speeches and networking, Davos remains a 'phenomenal money-spinner' for founder Klaus Schwab.
[ p.3.4 ]...David Smith says that while last week's GDP figures were undoubtedly disappointing, there was some relief in the Treasury that they were not even worse.
[ p.3.4 ]...Irwin Stelzer sees an end to uncertainty over the American economy, which will inevitably help the President's re-election chances.
[ p.3.4 ]...believes that that the successful efforts by the Royal Bank of Scotland's remuneration committee to 'hold the government to ransom' on bonuses shows the 'extraordinary grip' the financial sector continues to exert on the economy.
...Italy's UniCredit is the best performing stock among the eurozone's top 50 companies this year after seeming to be an extremely poor bet before Christmas - all thanks to the generosity of the European Central Bank.
...High-speed broadband from fibre-optic cables could mean effective live internet television, threatening BSkyB's traditional satellite dishes.
[ p.46 ]...William Keegan argues that it is becoming clear that the post-crash stimulus was withdrawn too soon in the UK, unlike in the US which has enjoyed stronger recovery as a result.
[ p.46 ]...Peter Preston reveals that the New York Times, party concealed behind a paywall which limits traffic growth to its website, is feeling 'miffed' that the Mail Online site has now overtaken it in global popularity.
[ p.48 ]Royal Bank of Scotland chairman Sir Philip Hampton has waived a £1.4m share award he was due, putting pressure on CEO Stephen Hester to do the same over his controversial £1m bonus. Sources suggest that Hampton had felt uneasy for some time about accepting the bonus, due to be paid as a 'signing-on' reward when he agreed to join the bank from J Sainsbury.
[ p.1, B1 ]Lloyds Banking Group executive director (wholesale) Truett Tate could be the biggest casualty of a new management shake-up planned by CEO Antonio Horta-Osorio. Tate's new role, discussed at a board meeting last Thursday, is said to have so upset him that he threatened to resign after a row with Horta-Osorio.
[ p.B1 ]Indian software group Wipro is close to agreeing a deal with the UK government to train British students in Bangalore. Wipro chairman Azim Premji made the offer of three months intensive training in India to help develop the students' expertise, with the government paying up to 30% of the cost.
[ pp.B3, B9 ]...Kamal Ahmed thinks George Osborne was right not to oppose Stephen Hester's bonus, as he needs to ensure he has the business community onside if elusive growth is to be restored.
[ p.B4 ]...Liam Halligan, chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management, is impressed by Mitt Romney's analysis of the continuing financial crisis, which suggests that the banking system remains gridlocked because of attempts to conceal the billions of toxic losses the banks still carry on their books.
[ p.B4 ]...Tom Stevenson, an investment director at Fidelity Worldwide, says the market rally so far this year should treated with caution in the short-term.
[ p.B4 ]...James Quinn reports that the Mitchells & Butlers AGM last week was overshadowed by investor Joe Lewis, even though he was nowhere near Birmingham's International Convention centre.
...Details likely to be released week as part of Facebook's IPO process will give the first real view of the social networking site's closely-guarded financials.
[ p.B8 ]...Margareta Pagano thinks it is time that David Cameron and George Osborne stopped wasting time on irrelevant issues - such as Sir Fred Goodwin's knighthood - and developed some real economic growth policies, including increased lending to SMEs and tax incentives to companies to take on more workers.
[ p.87 ]...Hamish McRae thinks the 'politics of easy money' could change once it becomes more apparent to the public that the long-term impact is higher inflation and lower income from savings.
...The growth of smartphones in emerging markets will lead to increased commercial innovation in those regions.
[ p.90 ]...Lisa Buckingham thinks there is real movement under way to empower the 'army of small shareholders' who could tip the balance in favour of curbing excessive executive pay.
...Developing the RAF base at Northolt in west London could be an 'elegant solution' to the capacity crisis at Heathrow.
[ p.74 ]Taking Stock: Jon Rees thinks the real challenge to BSkyB this year will be renegotiating the Premier League television rights in the face of new competition.
Economics: Dan Atkinson says those people who seem happy with 'zero growth' should be aware that this would mean real cuts in living standards.
[ p.78 ]...Tracey Boles welcomes the EU's proposals to boost airport capacity by establishing a formal market for 'slot' trading.
...Dixons Retail believes the key trends in the consumer technology market this year will be 'smart' televisions and ultra-thin laptops.
...Smith & Nephew should post encouraging results this week, a result of building margins as well as moving into new markets.
[ p.F2 ]Notting Hill estate agent returns to his old manor
Jon Hunt, founder of the Foxtons estate agency who sold it for £375m in 2007 ahead of the housing crash (BC Partners was the unlucky buyer), invested much of the proceeds in property when prices were low post-recession. But he is now back in business with a new venture: an office rental club called Dryland aimed at affluent start-ups. The first offices have opened in Kensington High Street and will be run by his daughter Emma.
[ p.3.6 ]The raw materials are here ...if we just stop throwing them away
Colin Drummond, Viridor CEO, has been instrumental in developing the waste management company into an environmentally-friendly business turning waste into useful products - everything from compost to recycled glass and paper. The latest sources of renewable energy also include 'anaerobic digestion' - using micro-organisms to produce biogas from biodegradable waste.
[ p.77 ]The self-effacing outsider why has run foul of the FSA
David Einhorn, founder of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, is undoubtedly ruing the biggest mistake of his career - the 2009 sale of his shares in Punch Taverns based on insider information which last week earned him a £7m fine for market abuse from the Financial Services Authority. But Einhorn has won some support for his 'martyr's defence' claiming unfair treatment by the FSA for expanding its remit without accountability.
[ p.12 ]Tempus: Nic Fildes says Ericsson's surprise profit warning casts doubt over the UK telecoms sector, although Vodafone, BT and Virgin Media all have their attractions. But while Cable & Wireless Worldwide looks one to avoid, there is the possibility of an eventual bounce back from its current low of 14p.
No Pain, No Gain: Derek Pain is considering selling Mears, 235p, after the recent profit warning and fears over its vulnerability to public spending cuts.
Investment Extra: Sam Dunn points out that successful investing in China has proved difficult, as even the most experienced fund managers (such as Anthony Bolton and his Fidelity Special Situations fund) have shown. But there remains plenty of potential from investing in the country for long-term investors.
Inside the City: Danny Fortson sees only struggles ahead for Ocado, which does not have the luxury of sorting its problems out as a private rather than publicly quoted company. ● The City is expecting a set of 'barnstorming' results from ARM Holdings on Tuesday, with annual profits up 30% at £216m.
Sunday Questor: Garry White says buy RPC Group, 380p, which still does not look expensive even after the recent share price surge. ● Buy 3i Infrastructure Fund, 120p, for income.
Midas: Joanna Hart says buy Secure Trust Bank, 935p, but prepare to be patient. ● Update: Cautious investors may prefer to sell Afren, tipped in January 2007 at 56p and now 124p, although others may stay in for further capital growth.
Tips of the Week: Buy UBS at SFr12.60; well-placed to absorb the shocks that the uncertain banking environment may deliver, along with a robust banking and wealth management franchise. ● Buy Stobart, 120.5p; diversifying away from its core trucks operation offers higher-growth potential, backed by a healthy yield. ● Buy Hummingbird Resources at 151p; a speculative mining play on the gold bubble continuing. ● Sell Logica at 76p; lacks defensive qualities and needs to overhaul its outsourcing model to become more competitive. ● Updates: Keep buying Gulf Keystone Petroleum, tipped on 19 August 2011 at 138p and now 276p. ● Hold Ceres Power, recommended as a sell on 7 April 2011 at 38p and now 10p. ● Keep selling Ocado, recommended as a sell on 30 July 2010 at 169p and now 81.5p. ● Tip Bits: Keep buying Digital Barriers, Ladbrokes, Jupiter Fund Management and William Hill. But sell Sanofi-Aventis. ● News Tips: Keep selling Nokia, Eu4, as it is falling further behind Apple and Samsung in the smartphone market. ● Buy Rio Tinto as the 'favoured play' on Asian-focused mining stocks. ● Feature Tips: 'Mr Bearbull' has bought 10,000 Vodafone shares for his income fund. ● Simon Thompson expects a significant re-rating for niche venture capital provider BP Marsh & Partners. ● Peter Temple offers his 2012 'Dogs of the FT30' high-yielding stocks: Ladbrokes, Man Group, Logica, Vodafone and RSA Insurance. ● Funds Tip: Buy New India Investment Trust, 218.5p, for long-term growth. ● Brokers' Views - Bovis Homes: Liberium (Buy), Northland Capital (Buy); IC View: Buy. ● Man Group: Citi Investment Research (Neutral), Numis Securities (Buy); IC View: Hold. ● APR Energy: Barclays Capital (Overweight), Numis Securities (Buy); IC View: Buy. ● Tullow Oil: Barclays Capital (Overweight), Canaccord Genuity (Hold); IC View: Hold. ● Results Tips: Buy Wynnstay, 349p; Buy NCC, 860p; Hold City of London Investment Group, 348p; Buy Zetar, 176p; Hold Chemring, 390p. ● Trading Tips - Dow Jones Industrials: Warren Firth at www.globalprimepartners.com.au sees an 'imminent reversal' in the index which offers shorting opportunities. ● Sterling/Dollar: Matt Shaw at www.fixedoddssuccess.com believes the pound should reach US$1.58 before the next significant sell-off. ● Gold: Clive Lambert at www.futurestechs.co.uk says the precious metal's recovery is coming up against a number of obstacles which could hold further progress back. ● Nikkei 225: Ragu Dharmaratnam of Baselica is bullish about the Japanese index, suggesting traders should go long.